How we are doing
If you put $100 on every one of our 97 calls, you would have
$8,486
today. +$86 on $8,400 simulated.
Each square is one call we made. Green = we made money. Red = we lost. Gold = still open.
36 closed (18 wins, 18 losses) · 48still open · see every call →
Today’s lead · politics
Don't catch DraftKings at $26.39 while Kalshi sits at #2 in the App Store during the World Cup
DraftKings (ticker: DKNG) sits at $26.39 after a week of selling, and the reason is sitting one rank above ChatGPT on the App Store. Kalshi, a federally regulated betting venue, is the #2 free app in the country and it is taking the World Cup audience that DraftKings used to own. Stand aside, this is not a dip to buy yet.
Recent
- onchain·Jun 19
Buy Ethereum at $1,695 while everyone is downloading Kalshi instead of Coinbase
Crypto's fear-gauge has been pinned in the panic zone for 14 straight days, retail has rotated their phones to prediction-market apps, but $370 million quietly flowed into Ethereum staking this week. That mismatch is the trade.
- stocks·Jun 19
Don't catch Fiserv at $47.86 just because a director bought $1.7 million two days ago
Fiserv fell 9.8% today to $47.86, sliding past the price where a director put $1.7 million into the stock on Monday. The setup is interesting but the bleeding has not stopped, so wait rather than chase.
- onchain·Jun 17
Don't buy LayerZero (ZRO) at $1.06 before Friday's $11 million insider unlock
Day-traders on the biggest crypto perpetuals exchange are paying about 10 times the usual rent to bet that LayerZero (ZRO) goes up, just as 10.6 million tokens worth roughly $11 million land in insider wallets on Friday June 20. Wait for the dust to settle before buying.
- stocks·Jun 17
Don't chase Six Flags at $25.15 after the insider buy already jumped 9% on the disclosure
Three Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) directors bought a combined $6.17 million of stock at $23.30 last Thursday. The filing hit the tape yesterday after the close, and the stock jumped 8.66% to $25.15 at the open. The signal is real, but you are now paying the directors' premium plus a 9% retail-chase tax.
- politics·Jun 16
Buy MP Materials at $57.05 as Congress lines up two China-blocking bills for a House vote
Two bills aimed at cutting China's grip on US supply chains were placed on the House voting calendar in the past week. MP Materials, the only US rare earth miner of scale, jumped 5% today and is still 43% below its 52-week high.
- onchain·Jun 16
Don't chase Hyperliquid (HYPE) at $73.58 while everyone is paying record rent to be long
HYPE jumped 7.9% on a brutal red day for crypto, and traders on its own exchange are paying about 100% per year just to hold a long position. The catch: regulators in Washington just gave U.S. exchanges the green light to copy Hyperliquid's main product. Stand aside until $62.
- stocks·Jun 16
Buy Autodesk at $199.50 after a director put $1.29 million into the panic low
Autodesk just dropped 30% on fears about a $3.6 billion acquisition, hit a 52 week low, and yesterday a board director bought $1.29 million of stock with their own money. The setup is the kind of contrarian buy that only shows up when everyone else is selling.
- politics·Jun 15
Buy Interactive Brokers at $92.76 as Washington just cleared the runway for prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued New Mexico on Wednesday to stop states from banning prediction markets, then opened the federal rulebook to expand them. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) runs its own regulated prediction-market platform and is up only 6.19% today while rival Robinhood (HOOD) already jumped 15.38%. IBKR is the cleaner buy at $92.76.
- onchain·Jun 15
Buy Aave at $76.51 as $700 million floods back into DeFi lending while everyone is still scared
Aave token is up 16.79% to $76.51 and the protocol just added roughly $700 million of deposits in a single day, even as the crypto fear gauge sits at 20 (Extreme Fear). When real on-chain money moves in while the mood is still panic, that is usually the buy window.
- stocks·Jun 15
Buy Summit at $14.40 after the founder bet $100 million of his own money on the panic low
Summit Therapeutics' executive chairman Robert Duggan bought 7.67 million shares for about $100.7 million on June 4 at $13.13, right as the stock cratered to a 52-week low and the market sentiment gauge hit 13 out of 100. Buy SMMT at $14.40 and sell if it closes under $12.40.
- macro·Jun 14
Buy EFA at $104 as $8 billion floods international stocks and the dollar slides
Big money has poured $8.36 billion into international developed-market funds over the last three months while the U.S. dollar has rolled over from its March peak. The Fed meets in 3 days and the smart-money rotation out of expensive U.S. stocks into cheaper foreign ones is the cleanest macro trade on the board. Buy the iShares MSCI EAFE exchange-traded fund (a basket of European, Japanese, and Australian stocks you can buy as one ticker), symbol EFA, on a small pullback to $104.
- macro·Jun 13
Buy TLT at $85.77 before the Fed meeting in 4 days while jobless claims quietly climb
Long-dated US Treasury bonds (TLT, the exchange-traded fund (a basket of bonds you can buy as one ticker) that holds 20-year US government bonds) jumped 0.83% to $85.77 today as the 10-year US government bond interest rate fell from 4.55% to 4.45% in one session. Weekly jobless claims have climbed from 199,000 in early May to 229,000 last week, and the Fed's rate-setting meeting is on June 17, 4 days from today.
- politics·Jun 12
Don't chase FanDuel parent FLUT at $110.65 after a Washington filing just shielded sports betting
The U.S. derivatives regulator filed a proposed rule on June 8 that would block prediction markets like Kalshi from offering sports contracts, then sued New Mexico three days later for trying to do it first. Flutter (the parent of FanDuel) jumped 10.1% today on the news. Wait for a pullback to $106 before buying.
- onchain·Jun 12
Buy Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at $12.61 while panic peaks and on-chain money quietly flows back in
The exchange-traded fund (a basket you buy as one ticker) that tracks Ethereum, ticker ETHA, is bouncing off all-time lows at $12.61 today while crypto's fear gauge has been pinned at panic levels for ten straight days. Meanwhile money on the Ethereum network just jumped 3% in 24 hours, the kind of split that usually marks a bottom.
- stocks·Jun 12
Buy Ryan Specialty at $35.09 after a major insider bought $4.5 million while the market panicked
A senior insider at insurance broker Ryan Specialty (RYAN) just spent $4.5 million of personal cash buying the stock at $32.58. Insiders at a second insurance company did the same thing the same week. Fear is at year lows in the market, and that is when this kind of buying tends to pay.
- politics·Jun 11
Buy CME Group at $262.18 after regulators just handed it the U.S. crypto perpetual futures market
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just gave U.S. exchanges the green light to list crypto perpetual contracts, the single biggest product in offshore crypto trading. CME Group, the only fully U.S.-regulated futures exchange with the plumbing to launch them, sits at multi-month lows with the price gauge at the oversold line.
- onchain·Jun 11
Buy IBIT at $35.42 while Saylor's MicroStrategy crashes 12% and Bitcoin holds
The biggest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (a basket you can buy as one ticker), iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), just hit the most oversold reading of its life while Bitcoin itself barely moved. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR) dropped 11.69% today, but Bitcoin is up 0.6%. That gap is the trade.
- stocks·Jun 11
Buy MasterBrand at $8.80 as mortgage rates finally turn down and a director just bought $650,000 of stock
Kitchen-cabinet maker MasterBrand (MBC) at $8.80 just had a director cluster purchase of $650,000 the same week 30-year mortgage rates ticked down for the first time in a month. Buy on a pullback to $8.50, sell if it drops to $7.85.
- politics·Jun 10
Buy FOXA at $68 before tomorrow's World Cup kickoff while regulators corner Kalshi
The men's soccer World Cup kicks off in the United States tomorrow on FOX, the only English-language broadcaster, and the same day regulators announced a plan that boxes prediction-market site Kalshi out of sports betting. FOXA at $68 is the cleanest way to play both stories at once.